ICT Offers the World Hope – 2004In his book Linked, Barabasi talks about watching a child take apart his/her favourite toy, and then be devastated when they are unable to put it back together again. In general, of course, it turns out that putting things back together is a much harder problem. It turns out that we're running into similar problems at the scientific level. To some extent, it's these complexity issues that underlay the ever increasing requirements for computing power, whether it be via supercomputers, grids, or the OptIPuter. Less esoteric, but just as critical, are the issues involved with software development, designing future network infrastructures, and attempting to peer into the future. In most cases, though we do have all the fundamentals, from the components to the trends, we simply don't know enough to correctly put them together. Open source and emergent systems are approaches that may help, but they've some maturing to do. It will be some time before either we or the larger scientific community are able to match the effortless self–organization expressed in most aspects of nature. An interesting and encompassing framework for thinking about the macroeconomic context of the world ten years out is provided by Rischard in his book, High Noon: 20 Global Problems and 20 Years to Solve Them. Rischard sees the world being shaped by two main drivers, the demographic explosion and the new economy – the latter being the result of both a technology and an economic revolution. These three trends led to both unprecedented levels of stress and opportunity. Whereas we may currently be able to blissfully ignore the stresses, they are continuing to build and will have to be dealt with at a global level soon. The longer we wait, of course, the tougher they will be to rectify. Based on the framework, the twenty issues divide into three groups revolving around basic issues of cooperation and sharing our planet in an equitable and balanced manner. Specifically, we need to better share our planet and its resources, share our humanity, and, interestingly, share our rule–books. Here again, while we may have a good handle on some of the key components of these issues, they interact in complex ways and our understanding of their dynamics is limited. In the Ingenuity Gap, Thomas Homer–Dixon suggests that the world's problems are getting more complex at a rate faster than that at which human ingenuity is increasing. Hence, the world is increasingly going out of control. There is often a critical time lag between the recognition of a problem and the delivery of sufficient ingenuity, in the form of technologies, to solve that problem. Progress in the social sciences is especially slow. In alignment with Rischard, Homer–Dixon feels that the problems that we face today spill across geographic and intellectual boundaries, their complexity often exceeding our wildest imaginations. And we may not have 20 years. An article in the January edition of Fortune magazine points out that potentially small changes in the salinity of the North Atlantic could disrupt the 'great conveyor' current and seriously disrupt climatic systems worldwide. Pushed beyond a critical point, such changes would be rapid. Homer–Dixon argues that two types of ingenuity are required – technological and social, and of these, social is the most critical. Which is great news since one of the biggest disruptions foreseen resulting from new ICT deployments over the next ten years lay in the social domain. More specifically, based on the enabling features of the Internet and new wireless technologies, aspects of self–organization are arising spontaneously in our social networks – yielding levels of cooperation that will both powerfully shape our world over the next ten years and give us the capability to truly deal with the serious issues that face us. – From Nortel's Horizons Presentation; Craig Dobson, 2004 03 03.
A View to 2012 (DRCN Banquet Presentation) – 2003Click here to see the file in PDF format. You can also save the document above to print later by right clicking
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Change: Do you REALLY know what you're in for? – 2000That change currently pervades our lives has pretty much become axiomatic. Unfortunately, though, I seriously wonder if we really understand what we're dealing with and if both we and our institutions are really up to the challenge – if we're barely making due to day, we are in for serious trouble tomorrow.
For the sake of argument, at the macro level let's assume a time factor of four years. As shown, we can then expect very little change for the first 20 years. After that, however, things begin to change and, indeed, life becomes quite interesting for a period of five years or so. Then the curve more or less explodes. Making the time constant shorter or longer doesn't change the effect, it simply changes the length of time it takes for things to get interesting. With a more realistic societal time factor of 7 years, the knee moves out 15 years. Regarding the curve, it's easy to see how we often grossly overestimate a technology's near term impacts, while underestimating its long term effects. We can also see how it's easy to mistake a clear view for short distance. The end impact of an exponential is very difficult to miss, but estimating how long it'll take to get there is fraught with error. Looking around, it seems that things are getting quite interesting already and that you could make a fairly strong case to the effect that the industrialized world has at least arrived to the knee of its exponential curve. If so, we perhaps need to take a long hard look at how we are currently dealing with change and seriously consider whether or not we and our institutions will be up to the challenge of real change, when it hits a few years from now. In a parable concerning the Emperor of China, the Emperor offered the inventor of chess any prize he desired. The inventor opted for a mere grain of rice on the first square of the chessboard, two grains on the second, four on the third, and so on. While the Emperor thought the request modest, the demand was in effect an exponential one and a simple calculation shows that at square sixty–four, this would amount to enough rice to bury the entire planet. George Gilder points out that in terms of progress in electronics, we are on square forty [the number has been updated as his talk was several years ago]. Of course, while the Emperor could solve his problem by beheading the inventor, the solutions to our information age problems are not so straightforward. Actually, we have no way of even knowing how big the 'chess' board is, if in fact, it is limited at all. Indeed, once Moore's Law as applied to electronics has run its course, we'll have three dimensional structures, nanotube technology, quantum computers, ...
– Adapted from Change: Do you REALLY know what you're in for?; Craig Dobson, 2000 02 10.
Security and the Information Highway – 1996Click here to see the file in PDF format. You can also save the document above to print later by right clicking
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Technology, Education, and the Information Highway – 1995Click here to see the file in PDF format. You can also save the document above to print later by right clicking
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Books - Some Interesting Future PerspectivesAlbert-Laszlo Barabasi; Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means for Business, Science, and Everyday Life; Plume; 2003 [ISBN: 0452284392] Linked is one of two books on Complexity Theory and its implications that came out in 2003 (the other is Nexus). In this book, Barabasi argues that the trick to understanding nature is to understand its dynamics - dynamics that appear, across a broad array of disciplines, to be governed by the network effects that complexity theory is only now attempting to come to grips with. In terms of the Internet, current work has determined that both the distribution of links on the world wide web as well as the physical router network are scale-free - or follow a power law characteristic. As both more time sensitive traffic and traffic resulting from new service sets (sensor nets, mobile data, etc.) add to the load, the current balance that resulted in the power law characteristic may disintegrate. Since at this point, we've no idea what the overall characteristics of the resulting network will be, it will be difficult to design and optimize the supporting infrastructure.
Jon Brockman (ed.); The Next 50 Years - Science in the First Half of the 21st Century; Vintage; 2002 [ISBN: 0375713425] A compendium of 25 essays from some of the world's leading scientists on where their fields are likely to be some 50 years out. Covering both the future in theory and in practice, the breadth of coverage is amazing - from complexity theory to sociology and biotech - but uneven.
Damien Broderick; The Spike - How Our Lives Are Being Transformed By Rapidly Advancing Technology; Forge; 2001 [ISBN: 031287782X] The Spike provides a comprehensive review of thinking and work related to the development of a significant technologically-based discontinuity around 2030, give or take some 15 years or so. This discontinuity would result from the development of a 'super-intelligence' and the various paths through which this might be realized are discussed in detail. Any projections beyond such a discontinuity would be meaningless.
James Canton; TechnoFutures - How Leading-edge Technology Will Transform Business in the 21st Century; Hay House; 1999 [ISBN: 1561706531] While Dr. Canton provides some interesting views of the future - I particularly liked some of his future 'news' stories - the book overall (IMHO) runs afoul of the saying 'Don't mistake a clear view for a short distance'. Partly with the benefit of hindsight, it is apparent that deciphering the human genome does not imply a capability to manipulate life over the short term, nor does an understanding of neural networks and software lead directly to sophisticated agent technologies and artificial life.
Joseph F. Coates, John B. Kahaffie, & Andy Hines; 2025 - Scenarios of US and Global Society Reshaped By Science and Technology; Available Online; 1996 [ISBN: 1886939098] Though somewhat dated now, this is the most comprehensive survey of the future that I have come across. Not only does it cover many science and technology disciplines, it examines the implications of each to the nations of the first, second, and third world. This coverage comes at the expense of discussion, however, and the book's emphasis on facts and data makes for some dry reading.
Juan Enriquez; As the Future Catches You: How Genomics & Other Forces are Changing Your Life, Work, Health, & Wealth; Crown Business; 2001 [ISBN: 0609609033] Whereas the technology boom over the last quarter century has been dominated by Moore's Law and electronics, prosperity in the coming decades will be dominated by advances in biotechnology. The book's unique presentation and layout make for some fun reading while Enriquez's connections between knowledge and wealth generation capability and their implications are worth thinking about.
Frank Feather; future living: The Coming "Web Lifestyle"; Warwick; 2003 [ISBN: 1894622286] future living is an expose on the advantages of doing everything from working to managing your health online in a web-based manner. Feather's basic premise is that in moving to a web-based lifestyle we will be able alleviate many of the ills resulting from the industrial revolution (e.g., family related impacts of moving people away from the home and in to plants and office towers) and return to the more value-based, home-centred lifestyle that pre-dated it. In so doing, we will transition from 'making a living' to 'making a life'. Reviews from Amazon.
Neil Gershenfeld; When Things Start to Think; Available Online; 1999 [ISBN: 0805058745] Gershenfeld's overall premise is that there is the computer world of bits and the real world of atoms and mankind could benefit by having the two more closely melded together. For instance, the question shouldn't be 'are books better for reading than computer screens' - but 'how can the two be merged to obtain the best features of each?' Though several of the discussions are quite interesting, much of the book deals with the Media Lab and its accomplishments.
[A more recent excellent article by Gershenfeld is available
here.]
Fred Harmon; Business 2010 - Five Forces That Will Remake Business - and How to Make Them Work for You; Kiplinger Books; 2003 [ISBN: 0938721844] When a book is endorsed by the likes of Peter Drucker - 'Fred Harmon's new book, while easy reading, is full of profound insights...' - you know you've got something worth reading.
Harmon posits that as society moves from material to knowledge -based endeavours, most constraints on the speed of advancement disappear. He makes a lucid case for technological innovation being driven by social aspirations, and his tight linkages between the two and their impacts on business direction are worth understanding. His five key forces of change are: (1) Technology; (2) The spread of freedom; (3) Education; (4) Demographics; and (5) Globalization.
Thomas Homer-Dixon; The Ingenuity Gap: Can We Solve the Problems of the Future?; Vintage Canada; 2001 [ISBN: 0676972969] In contrast to the economic optimists asserting a rosy future for all, the overall thesis of this book is that the world's problems are getting more complex at a rate faster than that at which human ingenuity is increasing. Hence, the world is going increasingly out of control. There is often a critical time lag between the recognition of a problem and the delivery of sufficient ingenuity, in the form of technologies, to solve that problem and progress in the social sciences arena is especially slow.
Paul Kennedy; Preparing for the 21st Century; Random House; 1994 Though a bit dated and currently out of print, this well-researched book suggests that four forces will largely shape world events over the coming decades: (1) Demographics; (2) Information Highways - which through electronic fund transfer capabilities will erode the power of the nation-state; (3) Biotechnology - which may devalue land; and (4) Robotics - which may devalue labour. Ray Kurzweil; The Age of the Spiritual Machine: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence; Penguin; 2000 [ISBN: 0670882178] This is a highly controversial book by a highly respected scientist that brings to a head the issues of computer intelligence and sentient machines. Kurzweil argues that computational power rivaling that of the human brain will be available for $1000 by ~2020 and that the required software to rival our thinking processes should become available by 2030. This is one of the avenues that might lead to the discontinuity in human progress discussed in The Spike.
Thomas W. Malone; The Future of Work - How the New Order of Business Will Shape Your Organization, Your Management Style, and Your Life; Harvard Business School Press; 2004 [ISBN: 1591391253] An intriguing look at the impacts of rapidly advancing networking technologies and the decreasing costs of communication on future organizational structures. Whereas many reference changing organizational structures, Malone provides detailed frameworks and develops the relationships between them, markets, human efficiency, and innovation.
Howard Rheingold; Smart Mobs - The Next Social Revolution; Perseus; 2002 [ISBN: 0738206083] Whereas Malone relates advancing communication capabilities to organizational structures, Rheingold relates them to society at large. 'Smart mobs consist of people who are able to act in concert even if they don't know each other. The people who make up smart mobs cooperate in ways never before possible because they carry devices that possess both communication and computing capabilities. The most far-reaching changes will come from the kinds of relationships, enterprises, communities, and markets that the infrastructure makes possible.' Mobile internet will do for Internet what the telephone did for the telegraph - it will take it to the masses, and society will never be the same. The best by far, so to speak is yet to come...
J.F. Rischard; High Noon: 20 Global Problems - 20 Years to Solve Them; Basic Books; 2002 [ISBN: 0465070094] Provides an interesting and encompassing framework for thinking about the macroeconomic context of the world twenty years out. Rischard sees the world being shaped by two main drivers, the demographic explosion and the new economy - the latter being the result of both a technology and an economic revolution. These three trends lead to both unprecedented levels of stress and opportunity. Whereas we may currently be able to blissfully ignore the stresses, they are continuing to build and will have to be dealt with at a global level soon. The longer we wait, of course, the tougher they will be to rectify. His overall theme echoes that in The Ingenuity Gap.
Peter Schwartz; Inevitable Surprises - Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence; Gotham Books; 2003 [ISBN: 1592400272] From one of the masters of scenario planning and the Chairman of the Global Business Network, this book provides a high level global perspective on key trends that will impact our world as we move forward - a useful framework that provides context to many of the disparate daily news items with which we are bombarded. Surprisingly, I found his technology section to be the most intriguing - an interesting response to those advocating that the 'end of science' is close at hand. Schwartz too, argues for a singularity, albeit a less profound one than that espoused by Broderick: 'The revolutionary advances in science and technology will create new fundamental, and controversial possibilities for our species. The economic potential to lift billions out of poverty will be within our grasp. A new kind of political order will result. Cumulatively, we've no idea where this will take us.'
Bruce Sterling; Tomorrow Now: Envisioning the Next 50 Years; Random House; 2003 [ISBN: 0812969766] An interesting and surprisingly down-to-earth look at the tomorrows of some fifty years out. I was most intrigued by his section on biotechnology and most worried by his discussion on the future of terror.
Richard Worzel; Who Owns Tomorrow - 7 Secrets for the Future of Business; Viking Canada; 2003 [ISBN: 0670043559] An easy to read dissertation that largely focuses on the value of people both inside and outside enterprises and why they should be well-treated - a simple, thoroughly researched and supported proposition that many organizations are unable to understand.
Links – Some Informative Sites
Google – To Search For Additional Information |
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In general terms, the amended version of Moore's law states that the capability of the integrated circuit chips that underlie the electronics industries, is doubling every 18 months. In other words, the capabilities of the technology suite that underlies microchip development is feeding on itself – just like compound interest does – and the resulting growth is exponential. Though microchip developments have repercussions throughout the industrialized world, the microchip itself is only a component technology and the societal effects are delayed for a variety of reasons. The 18 month factor at the microchip level may be several times that at society's level.
In terms of interesting times, we have only just begun.
